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Research & Methodology

How the engine
actually works.

Three short methodology notes, written for the kind of allocator who wants to know what's running underneath the headline numbers. No black boxes, no hand-waving — just the math, the discipline, and the structure. Full methodology shared with verified accredited investors under NDA.

Note 01 · Calculation Methodology
How we calculate the Annual Differential
5 min read · Updated April 2026 · Public summary · Full methodology under NDA

The Annual Differential is the single most important number in the SPLT instrument. It is the percentage change in NAV between the start and end of a fiscal year, calculated against the $1.00 reset baseline. FY1 closed at +76.50%. Below is exactly how that number was produced.

The formula is intentionally simple. Complexity hides behind the inputs, not the math.

# Annual Differential
AD = (NAV_close - NAV_reset) / NAV_reset

# Where:
NAV_reset  = $1.00   # Set on April 1, fiscal year start
NAV_close  = $X      # Calculated on March 31, fiscal year end

# FY1 result:
AD_FY1 = ($1.7650 - $1.0000) / $1.0000 = +76.50%

The complexity is in NAV_close. SPLT NAV is calculated daily by aggregating realized platform performance against a defined accounting boundary. The boundary excludes operating expenses, servicing costs, and protocol-level fees — these are absorbed by the issuer entity, not the credential. NAV reflects investor-level economic exposure only.

A common mistake when reading these numbers: assuming the NAV change reflects gross trading P&L. It does not. NAV is post-cost and post-reconciliation against the company's backend accounting system. CPA attestation engagement is in progress for FY1 records. The +76.50% is what an investor would have realized on a redemption at the FY1 reset window, not a back-of-envelope return on capital.

The daily NAV is published to the Investor Portal each business day at market close. The annual close — the value used to compute the final Annual Differential — is independently reconciled against operational records before publication. CPA attestation is engaged for FY1 close.

What this number is not: a projection, a target, or a guarantee. FY2 may close meaningfully higher or lower than FY1. The Annual Differential is a measured outcome, not a forecast.

Past performance does not predict future results. The full calculation specification, including reconciliation procedures and attestation scope, is available in the SPLT White Paper under NDA.

Note 02 · Discipline Architecture
Why we reject 99.7% of opportunities
6 min read · Updated April 2026 · Public summary

Rejection is the work. Most opportunities in U.S. regulated sports markets look attractive at the surface — pricing inefficiency, liquid investors, defined timeframes. They fail at the structural level: the edge isn't documented, the risk isn't bounded, the counterparty isn't sound, or the market isn't deep enough to absorb size without slippage. We reject 99.7% of evaluated opportunities for one of these structural reasons.

~12,400
Opportunities Evaluated · FY1
~37
Positions Taken · FY1
99.7%
Rejection Rate
+76.50%
FY1 Annual Differential

The funnel below shows what 12,400 opportunities became:

Evaluated 12,400
Pricing inefficiency clears initial filter 3,720
Counterparty & market depth pass 684
Edge documentation complete 142
Position taken 37

Each filter is a structural test, not a confidence test. We don't reject opportunities because we feel uncertain — we reject them because the structure doesn't pencil. Examples:

Counterparty depth. If executing the position would move the counterparty's pricing meaningfully, the realized edge after slippage is materially below the modeled edge. Reject.

Edge documentation. If we can't articulate why the edge exists in a way that another analyst would replicate from the same inputs, the position is luck dressed up as analysis. Reject.

Risk-bounded outcome. If the worst-case outcome on the position is open-ended or operationally complex to unwind, position sizing collapses to zero. Reject.

The result is a portfolio of ~37 positions per fiscal year that have all cleared every structural filter. The +76.50% Annual Differential isn't produced by being right on 12,400 calls; it's produced by saying no to 12,363 of them.

The discipline is the edge. Most market participants in this category are sized to do volume. We are sized to do discrimination. That is the asymmetry.

Counts are FY1 directional approximations from internal records. Detailed funnel data and the structural filter specifications are in the methodology appendix, available under NDA.

Methodology Demonstration

Run a hypothetical opportunity
through our filters.

A radically simplified demonstration of how our methodology screens opportunities. Adjust the inputs and the demo runs the same four structural tests we apply internally — edge clarity, risk asymmetry, structural soundness, and capacity. For demonstration only. Not the real model. Not investment advice. Real evaluations involve far more inputs, vendor data, and senior-team review than any browser widget could simulate.

HYPOTHETICAL OPPORTUNITY INPUTS
180 bps
EXPECTED RETURN OVER FAIR VALUE
3.8x
DEPTH MULTIPLE — > 2.0X REQUIRED FOR PASS
Edge documentation strength
REPLICABILITY OF EDGE EXPLANATION FROM INPUTS
0.30
< 0.6 REQUIRED FOR PASS
METHODOLOGY DECISION
DECISION
PASS
All four structural tests cleared. Position eligible for sizing review.
Edge magnitude PASS
Counterparty depth PASS
Edge documentation PASS
Risk correlation PASS

Demonstration only. This widget illustrates the structural shape of our screening logic — not the actual proprietary model, which incorporates substantially more inputs, vendor data feeds, historical pattern matching, and senior-analyst review. The thresholds shown are simplified for demonstration and do not reflect production parameters. No output from this widget constitutes investment advice, an offer to sell securities, or a representation of how any specific opportunity would be evaluated in practice. Real opportunities are evaluated under offering documents and reviewed by the BettorToken investment team.

Note 03 · Structural Design
How NAV resets work — and why
4 min read · Updated April 2026 · Public summary

SPLT's NAV resets to $1.00 at the start of each fiscal year on April 1. To investors used to traditional fund vehicles where NAV compounds indefinitely, this is the structural feature that requires the most explanation. Below is what the reset does, what it doesn't do, and why it's structured this way.

What the reset does: It closes the prior fiscal year's Annual Differential. The redemption window opens at this point — investors can elect to redeem at the realized NAV before reset, or roll their position into the new fiscal year at the fresh $1.00 baseline.

What the reset does not do: It does not destroy economic value. An investor who held SPLT through the FY1 reset and elected to roll did not lose the +76.50% — they realized it as a redemption distribution, with the principal redeployed into FY2 at the new baseline.

# Reset event flow (per holder, per fiscal year):

value_at_close = units_held × NAV_close
redemption_paid = value_at_close - principal_basis   # the differential
principal_basis  $1.00 × units_held            # reset

# Investor either takes redemption or rolls into FY+1:
if election == "redeem":   USD distribution
if election == "roll":     credentials_reissued at $1.00 base

Why this structure? Three reasons, each tied to a real property of the underlying market:

1. Fiscal-year alignment with platform performance. Sports markets are cyclical — leagues, seasons, and competitive structures operate on annual cadences. A fiscal-year-aligned NAV reflects the natural unit of measurement the underlying activity actually produces.

2. Liquidity windows that match the asset. Continuous redemption against an event-linked credential creates pressure on the platform to maintain redemption liquidity that doesn't match the natural cash flow of the activity. Annual redemption windows let liquidity match the asset.

3. Honest baseline for new investors. A fresh $1.00 baseline at each reset means a new investor entering FY2 sees the same starting point as an FY1 rollover investor. There is no compounding NAV creating an opaque entry point — the price you pay is the price the protocol values the credential at, period.

The reset is not a feature we'd promote in marketing copy if our priority were optical compounding. It is a feature we use because it matches how the underlying activity actually behaves. The structure is the discipline.

The five-year hold on SPLT means investors will encounter five reset events. Each one is a redemption decision. Each one is a structural moment when liquidity is offered, the prior year is closed, and the next is begun on a clean baseline. Investors planning the position should plan around these five moments, not around continuous NAV compounding.

Reset mechanics, redemption election procedures, and notice-period requirements are detailed in the SPLT Subscription Agreement and Platform Overview, available under NDA.

Want the full methodology?

These are summaries. The real documents live in the data room.

Calculation specifications, structural filter definitions, attestation scope, and reset mechanics are documented in detail in the SPLT White Paper, Platform Overview, and Subscription Agreement. All available to verified accredited investors under NDA.

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