What changed this week
The desk is live on Polymarket and Kalshi. Integrations with Novig and Fanatics Markets are under way. Every fill on every venue is reconciled against that venue’s own records each day.
The Prime Partnership now has two short films. One for institutions (eight minutes) on the For Institutions page, and one for prediction-market venues (seven minutes) on the For Prediction Markets page. Both now have captions and a full transcript.
One click-to-sign NDA comes with every booking. When you book 15 minutes with Tim Hastings and Dan Reynaud, you sign one mutual NDA as part of the booking. Your signed copy arrives with the invite, and the data room opens the same day, so the first call can cover everything instead of stopping at what we are allowed to say. Read the NDA.
One idea, explained: the clock is the edge
Most of the desk’s trades settle within about five hours. Roughly 90% of them, as a company statement about recent trading. That number matters more than any single price.
Here is why. A small edge that settles tonight can be put to work again tomorrow. The same edge locked up for a month gets used once. Short settlement windows let the desk carry the same capital across many games, which is why we talk about the speed of settlement as much as the size of an edge.
It also keeps risk legible. Positions resolve on final scores, one game at a time, on published rules. They do not wait on rates, earnings or headlines. That is the plain-English version of “uncorrelated”: the thing that decides the outcome is the game.
This is how the desk is designed to work, not a promise of results. Edges are small, outcomes vary, and losing nights happen.
What is next
The Novig and Fanatics Markets integrations, and the public Desk · Live window: a read-only view of counts and decisions (never positions) once its data feed is connected. Until then, every walkthrough shows the live floor.
Desk Notes will run weekly. If there is something you want explained plainly, reply to any of our emails or book 15 minutes and ask Tim and Dan directly.
Settlement timing is a company statement about the desk’s recent trading and may change. Nothing here is an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Prediction-market trading involves substantial risk, including total loss. Past performance does not predict future results.